Evidence · Methodology · Reproducibility

Every claim is reconcilable to a documented event.

314+ documented cascades since January 2025 and counting. $1.49B real liquidation notional. 154-event 2026 cohort reconciled to per-minute data. All audit-grade.

Cascade Events & Counting
Live archive, audit-grade, reproducible
Liquidation Notional Analyzed
Across 8 deep-archive markets
Cross-Venue Confirmation
Live archive · expanding daily
Marquee Events

The cascades we flagged before they hit.

Documented, cross-venue confirmed, reproducible during evaluation. Each flagged by CRI with material lead time before forced selling accelerated.

2026 cohort · cross-asset wave
5 assets
Five-asset cascade wave. Correlated cascades across five markets — the clearest cross-asset contagion event in the archive.
FLAGGED 87–150 MIN BEFORE PEAK
2026 cohort · BTC
134 min
Median advance lead across the documented cohort. Cross-venue confirmed against Hyperliquid.
CROSS-VENUE CONFIRMED
2026 cohort · reconciliation
154 events
2026 cohort fully reconciled to per-minute liquidation data. Every event audit-grade and reproducible.
CROSS-VENUE CONFIRMED
Reconciliation

Real notional, reconciled to the minute.

Majors
Mid-cap
Long tail
Major perpetuals per-minute notional
Mid-cap perpetuals reconciled
Long-tail markets documented

$1.49B in real liquidation notional, reconciled.

Every figure in the archive traces to $1.49B of real liquidation notional, measured per minute across documented cascades. Nothing is modeled or inferred — the notional is what actually liquidated, reconciled event by event.

Concentration in the majors is why cross-asset contagion is the second-order risk: when the two dominant markets move together, the system moves with them.

Lead-Time Distribution

Warning measured in hours, not seconds.

Distribution of CRI lead time across documented cascades. The majority land in the 60–160 minute window — enough time for a risk officer to act before forced selling accelerates.

CRI lead time before cascade onset

60–160 min · highlighted
0-303%30-609%60-9019%90-12027%120-15022%150-18013%180+6%
Cross-Asset Contagion · Statistical Proof

Contagion is measured, not asserted.

Permutation-Tested Cluster Detection

When one market breaks, we measure whether the others are about to.

Cross-asset cascade clusters are validated against a null model built by randomly shuffling cascade onset times across markets, over 10,000 permutations. The observed clustering occurs roughly 600× more often than the null distribution produces by chance, at a significance no random arrangement reproduces (p<0.0001). The five-asset 2026 cascade wave is the archive's clearest instance.

Method · permutation test · 10,000 iterations · shuffled-onset null · p<0.0001
4
Validated clusters
p<0.0001
Significance threshold
~600×
Observed vs null model
10,000
Permutation iterations
Audit-Grade Reasoning

Every event carries its own proof.

01

Source-hashed

Every cascade event has a source_hash and inputs_json capturing the exact data that produced it.

02

Reproducible

Re-run any event during the evaluation period and get the same result. Deterministic, manifest-backed.

03

Reconcilable

Every published figure traces to SQL. Built so a risk team can verify any claim against its underlying data.

Verify any claim during a paid evaluation. Reconcile any event to its source data.
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