Evidence · Methodology · Reproducibility

Every claim is reconcilable to a documented event.

353 documented cascades across 47 markets. $2.376B liquidation notional, deduplicated over distinct liquidation minutes; per-event figures resolve for 329 of 353. Reconciled to five-minute liquidation records, as of 20 August 2026. All audit-grade.

Cascade Events & Counting
Live archive, audit-grade, reproducible
Liquidation Notional Analyzed
Across 47 markets
Cross-Venue Confirmation
Live archive · expanding daily
Marquee Events

The cascades we flagged before they hit.

Documented, cross-venue confirmed, reproducible during evaluation. Each flagged by CRI with material lead time before forced selling accelerated.

2026 cohort · multi-market cascade wave
25 markets
Twenty-five-market cascade wave. Correlated cascades began across 25 markets inside a single 60-minute window on 2026-06-05 — the largest simultaneous cluster in the archive.
LARGEST SIMULTANEOUS CLUSTER
2026 cohort · reconciliation
353 cascades
2026 cohort fully reconciled to five-minute liquidation records. Every event audit-grade and reproducible.
CROSS-VENUE CONFIRMED
Reconciliation

Real notional, reconciled to the minute.

Majors
Mid-cap
Long tail
Major perpetuals five-minute notional
Mid-cap perpetuals reconciled
Long-tail markets documented

$2.376B in real liquidation notional, reconciled.

Every figure in the archive traces to $2.376B of real liquidation notional, measured across documented cascades. The notional is measured from the five-minute liquidation record and reconciled event by event.

Concentration in the majors is why simultaneous moves matter: when the two dominant markets move together, much of the archive moves with them.

Lead-Time Distribution

Warning measured in hours, not seconds.

Distribution of CRI lead time across documented cascades. The majority land in the 60–160 minute window — enough time for a risk officer to act before forced selling accelerates.

CRI lead time before cascade onset

60–160 min · highlighted
0-300.2%30-601.3%60-906.0%90-12012.2%120-15056.4%150-18021.7%180+2.2%
Cascade Clustering

When one market breaks, we measure whether the others are about to.

Cluster Detection

Cascade clusters recorded across deep-archive markets.

Cascade clusters are detected across markets in a strict shared window and recorded with the events that compose them. Each cluster is reproducible from the underlying five-minute liquidation record. The 25-market 2026-06-05 cascade wave is the archive's clearest instance.

Full statistical validation ships Q3 2026.
Q3 2026
Statistical validation ships
Audit-Grade Reasoning

Every event carries its own proof.

01

Source-hashed

Every cascade event has a source_hash and inputs_json capturing the exact data that produced it.

02

Reproducible

Re-run any event during the evaluation period and get the same result. Deterministic, manifest-backed.

03

Reconcilable

Every published figure traces to SQL. Built so a risk team can verify any claim against its underlying data.

Verify any claim during a paid evaluation. Reconcile any event to its source data.
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